Friday, April 27, 2007

Captain Smarty Pants! Debunking idiotic ideas since 1985

Someone posted earlier this week that it is best to have three relief pitchers. That was a shock to me. I always assumed two RP was ideal. Now there are times when three RP's is good. EE started with Chris Ray, BJ Ryan, and Joel Zumaya. Three very good pitchers. But I had always assumed SP's got you more points that RP's. So I thought I would look at it again. And I really think I am right.

The only way to really judge the value of a pitcher is to look at season totals. An RP can get you 25 points in one night. And the next night get you another 20 points. But that is not the usual. His value is solely determined by the points he produces for the year. That is why I love this league and how it's based on points. It's simple. In a head to head or even a rotisserie, the value of certain stats are increased at certain times. While one save my be crucial in a certain week, the next week it could be worth absolutely nothing. In a points league, the save is always the same value.

So if yearly stats tells the whole story, what do they say about SP vs. RP? Well, last year, the first RP to pop up on total points was Krod at 1027. He comes in at 59th. 59th! There is almost six rosters of Starters before him. So basically there are 58 starters you would want in the 'P' slot before Krod.

Ok, that may be an overstatement. RP's start coming in a little faster after their initial 59th place entry. But the really good RP gets over 1000 points. There are only two Krod and Putz. The good Rps get in the 950 - 999 range. There are four! That leaves roughly 24 closers that get below 950, or the 'average' range.

That looks bad. But what happens when we compare it to SP? It still looks bad. Using my roster as an example, last year I only had two SP's that totaled less than 1000 points. And one of them is Burnett who was injured for quite some time. There is only one more that was lower than Krod's total. So that is a total of three SP's that I wouldn't want before Krod, the best RP from last year. That means, if you can follow my logic, that there are 7 pitchers on my roster alone that I would want in that 'P' slot before Krod.

It makes sense to me anyway.

2 comments:

Wizzard said...

Greg, I never really looked at it that way. I have three rps and it doesn't make sense. I don't think I will drop anybody just yet because our league is pretty deep and there aren't too many starters out there worth grabbing, but even a mediocre sp can post similar numbers than a top notch rp.
Case in point. Pappelbon hasn't allowed a run ALL YEAR. He has a 0.00 era and a 0.72 whip with 7/7 on save chances. He has 140 points in our league.
Adam Wainright has allowed 20 earned runs and 16 walks and only striking out 21 batters. His era is 6.14 and his whip is 1.88. He is 1-2 on the year and with all that he is only 11 points behind Pappelbon at 129 points on the year.
I think you can attribute the points to innings pitched and outs making sps more valuable. Too bad there isn't some way to balance that out. Greg, you and your think tank should come up with a solution.
By the way, I'm selling my trade potion on Ebay. So bid high and often!!!

ConGregation said...

Ooooooo. Going to have to get some money fast!

You made my point better than I did. But there are times when 3 RP's make sense. Especially if you have a young RP who will eventually hit the starting roster.

As far as a solution... I don't know. You could always up the value of a save/hold. But I kind of like it the way it is. Even though it's skewed to SP, we just have to play with the hand we are dealt.

The one think I wouldn't mind tweaking would be the wins points. Might have to work on something and see what guys think.