How many fantasy points is this worth?

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Fudge Friday

No numbers today. A little too busy for it.

But we have to mention Ozzie's surge. He is only 235 back of Mud with three weeks to go. Can he pull it off? Make it close?

Looks like the two brothers might end up one, two.

Ok, that's it. So long.

Friday's Follies

Here we go again. Ready to start the final month.

		Team	Points	Bats	Slot	Arms	Start	Week
1.		Mudville Nine	19003	9588	7.24	9415	26.68	989
2.		The Congrega	18636	9083	6.86	9553	27.07	763
3.		Wizzard of Oz	18561	9374	7.08	9187	26.04	926
4.		Sonic Death	18398	9271	7.00	9127	25.87	758
5.		EVIL EMPIR	18372	9533	7.20	8839	25.05	914
6.		Bru Cru	18047	9143	6.91	8904	25.23	1027
7.		Banana Slugs	17495	8124	6.14	9371	26.56	712
8.		Florida Pirate	17364	9113	6.88	8251	23.38	950
9.		Little Leaguer	17359	8984	6.79	8375	23.73	800
10.		Mac & Zack A	16400	8750	6.61	7650	21.68	836
11.		Columbus Ma	15814	7995	6.04	7819	22.16	749
12.		Rosies Angels	15505	8049	6.08	7456	21.13	741

Mud is still cruising. Almost a thousand this week coming in second to Bru with 1027. Ozzie surged ahead this week securing a solid third spot. I just noticed that last week I failed to minimize the chart enough to see the week totals. Sorry about that. I fixed it.

It looks like Sonic had the best offensive week. Raising his average by .04. Mud still leads in this category and could possibly end the year at or above 7.25.

Bru had a stellar pitching week. Raising his average by .49. Almost half a point! I thought Mud had a really good week at .2 until I saw that. Even though I regressed I still lead in this category by a good margin.

Well its slowly turning into a laugher. I am not ready to concede defeat yet but it would be a stretch to think I can make the ending exciting. I console myself with the fact that I should have more pitchers going this week than Mud but even if I gain 100 points it's still a good margin. Personally I have emphasized my pitching all year and I have to take some satisfaction in my performance in that category. But I didn't keep my offensive numbers high enough. I'm first in pitching and seventh in bats. Mud is first in bats and third in pitching. That is the difference right there. I do take some consolation that my team is still very young. Hopefully (a BIG hopefully) it will blossom into a perennial contender.

Friday's Fanatical Fantasy Frolic!

My wife just brought home the Tony Dungy book form the library so I want to get this over with so I can start in on it.

		Team	Points	Bats	Slot	Arms	Start	Week
1.		Mudville Nine	18014	9114	7.23	8900	26.48	1004
2.		The Congregationals	17873	8650	6.86	9223	27.44	1082
3.		Sonic Death Monkees	17640	8774	6.96	8866	26.38	918
4.		Wizzard of Ozzie	17635	8908	7.06	8727	25.97	1020
5.		EVIL EMPIRE	17458	9048	7.18	8410	25.02	780
6.		Bru Cru	17020	8707	6.91	8313	24.74	838
7.		Banana Slugs	16783	7707	6.11	9076	27.01	949
8.		Little Leaguer	16559	8505	6.75	8054	23.97	902
9.		Florida Pirates	16414	8617	6.83	7797	23.20	837
10.		Mac & Zack Attack 2	15564	8323	6.60	7241	21.55	729
11.		Columbus Mad Cows	15065	7657	6.07	7409	22.05	754
12.		Rosies Angels	14764	7652	6.07	7112	21.16	792

Top week goes to myself for the second week in a row. I have six starters starting on the same day and that day fell twice in this week. I don't think they line up for this week so I will probably have an abysmal week. The weekly total can be skewed by this. The problem is that Mudville kept pace. Ozzie had a great week. Last week I said he was going to have to pick it up and the very next day he jumped way up. He is right there with Sonic now for third place. The 'ouch' week goes to Evil Empire He was within 330 last week. He is now 550 out. I would think that would be insurmountable. Last week I said 380 was too far out. That may have been premature but 550 does it. On a side note Bru is now 1000 out! It is time to take a moment of silence in apprciation for the champion and his official defeat. ... Ok, who let out the whoop?!

I messed the bat stat up again. I had been forgetting to subtract the all star break days. So this weeks numbers are going to be inflated compared to last weeks. Mud took a commanding lead, distancing himself from Evil.

Pitching is all mine! MINE I SAY! Banana has fallen back. I am almost a half point ahead of everyone. Almost a full point ahead of Mud. But his bats have been too good! Again with Piazza last night. Seems like everyday he has at least one with 20 or more points. And why can't Arod get hurt?!

I gained on Mud and am 150 back. Sonic and Ozz are 370 back. Is it a two man race? Do I have a shot? I will say this, unless Nathan has a bad string of luck I don't think I can surpass him with just good luck on my part. er skill.

Offerman's Bat

Welcome to another edition of the Friday Follies. While most 'happening' persons are using their Friday for less noble causes, I will sit and run my calculator and look at numbers. And who cares. I enjoy it.

		Team	Points	Bats	Slot	Arms	Start	Week
1.		Mudville Nine	17010	8595	6.97	8415	25.59	891
2.		The Congrega	16791	8186	6.63	8605	26.17	970
3.		Sonic Death M	16722	8311	6.74	8411	25.58	934
4.		EVIL EMPIRE	16678	8581	6.95	8097	24.62	850
5.		Wizzard of Oz	16615	8422	6.83	8192	24.91	831
6.		Bru Cru	16182	8217	6.66	7965	24.22	813
7.		Banana Slugs	15834	7290	5.91	8544	25.98	889
8.		Little Leaguer	15657	8029	6.51	7628	23.19	788
9.		Florida Pirates	15577	8213	6.66	7364	22.39	750
10.		Mac & Zack A	14835	7885	6.39	6950	21.13	833
11.		Columbus Mad	14311	7324	5.93	6987	21.25	603
12.		Rosies Angels	13972	7155	5.80	6817	20.73	702

I came out on top with 970. But how can I have TWO shutouts and still not break 1000? Pathetic. Columbus had the worst week. Bru is falling back. He is 380 back with less than a month and a half to go. He has a shot but ... This isn't 1968 and ESPN's show isn't called 'The Brunx is burning'. So that leaves us with 5. They are withing 270 points. Not insurmountable. Although Ozzie is going to have to pick up the pace or he will be the next one mercilessly tossed out of the party.

Bats for the week were pretty steady. Movement at this point will be minimal. I think Mud won this award with an advance of .03. Wow. His HUGE jump propelled him into first place over Evil. Those two are a full .1 over Ozzie and He is almost a full .1 over Sonic. They are significantly ahead of us.

I have taken the lead on 'arms'. In fact my two shutouts spiked my line up .35. By far the biggest gain. While we were generally up, only Sonic and I had any significant gain. I have decided that we should give awards for leading a particular stat. Maybe the 'Hitting Instructor' award for who has the highest 'slot' number and um.. 'Pitching Coach' for the guy who takes the 'Start' category. I would take great satisfaction in winning the 'Start'. My 'rotation' has almost completely turned over from last year. Burnett and Webb are the only two starters I had last year. O wait, I had Pettitte too. Putz was on there as well. So I had a turnover of 66%

I got Buchholz today!!!! Now he hasn't been as great this year but earlier I was looking over where I was in the waiver wire and who might be coming up this year that I would have a chance of getting. Buchholz was the guy I had my sights set on (is that sites or sights?). I ended up being at #2 but Mud didn't put a claim in. yay. Looks like he had a decent outing today.

Well we are getting close to the end. Five guys still in the hunt. Will Mud just continue to cruise along keeping us all at bay? Or will a dark horse shoot out of the pack and surprise us all. Man every start is crucial. Every points gained or lost because they were sitting on your bench is a tragedy. (I bet Mudville has lost more points on his bench than the next three combined). These are the times when good luck charms are tossed aside for desperate and fervent prayer!

P.S. Drop a line. I always intended for these posts to be the instigation for conversation. This wasn't intended to be a one man show. Talk smack. Commiserate. Make bold predictions. Just say something!

I had two shutouts tonight!

The title says it all! I have got to be luck personified. I mean if Edwin Jackson gets a shutout... um... anyone want to buy a lottery ticket and I will try to give you my luck and then we can split it halfway?

That really doesn't work does it. Too bad I object to lottery tickets morally. ;-)

I actually went into the evening thinking I would drop Jackson for Burnett coming off the DL tomorrow. But. uh. I changed my mind. Should have dropped Wandy though... He has to start next on the road and for some reason he is terrible this year on the road.

Fast Friday

		Team	Points	Bats	/Slot	Arms	/Start	Week
1.		Mudville Nine	16119	8129	6.94	7990	25.60	989
2.		EVIL EMPIRE	15838	8177	6.98	7661	24.55	856
3.		The Congregat	15821	7764	6.63	8057	25.82	906
4.		Sonic Death	15788	7867	6.72	7921	25.38	814
5.		Wizzard of O	15784	8010	6.84	7774	24.91	837
6.		Bru Cru	15369	7784	6.65	7585	24.31	905
7.		Banana Slugs	14945	6914	5.90	8031	25.74	771
8.		Little Leaguer	14869	7656	6.54	7213	23.11	948
9.		Florida Pirates	14827	7810	6.67	7017	22.49	906
10.		Mac & Zack A	14002	7646	6.53	6538	20.95	662
11.		Columbus Ma	13708	6991	5.97	6717	21.52	847
12.		Rosies Angels	13270	6792	5.80	6478	20.76	644

We have a church meeting all day today. So I am just posting the numbers. No stupid analysis.

Pitching Projections!

This is really harder for me to do on a per pitcher basis. I have turned my roster over so much. When evaluating a pitcher I usually just look at points generated per inning pitched. That can be deceptive because a starter that pitches farther into the game will produce more points than one who doesn't. Of course if it is a starter you could go by appearances. But to sum up I didn't project all my pitchers out. I stopped after Webb (my best one) only produced an 1109. bleh!

But we can analyze the overall effect. Again, applying 1100 as a good year and 1200 as a really good year, we can see where we stand. 1100x12=13,200. To figure out the total starts for a year we will just divide 162 by 5 which gives us 32.4. While some pitchers will pitch every four games considering days off, that number (32.4) is usually close to the norm. So 13,200/32.4=407.4. We then must divide that number by 12 since we have 12 pitchers. That number is 33.95. We are WAY off that number.

So where are we at? Banana, the best so far, (25.75) projects to 10,011. 3,200 off the pace of a 'good' season. My number is 9996 (15 points behind banana, not bad). The leader, Mud, projects at 9751. 260 off the pace Banana is setting.

What does this all mean? Well for starters, either pitching is underperforming this year or pitching is not equal to hitting. This can be seen in the totals in the Friday post. Pitching is pretty equal to hitting in their total numbers but you have 3 more pitchers working for your number so the averages are going to be well below the bat's averages.

What are the averages? Banana-834.25 Me-833 and Mud-812. That is a significant dropoff. Around 300 points per player. Very interesting.

Looking at the Offensive Numbers

We are generally 2/3's of the way through the season. Seems like we just made it to the halfway point. So I thought I would project my current bat numbers through the entire season. They were pretty dismal. The highest projection was 1183 (Hanley). I didn't even break the 1200 barrier!

So if we say 1100 is a good year and 1200 is a great year, where would that leave us as far as the the averages in the Friday posts? Nice question. The answer is coming up. I really thought that averaging 1100 points on your entire nine playable positions for a season would be hard to do. But it doesn't appear that way. The actual number would be 6.7. Right now 4 out of the top 5 qualify (I am the lone failure).

So what about 1200? That is a little harder. 7.4. Obviously a bit out of our range. If we project Mudville's lineup (6.97) for the year (he is the highest) it comes to 1129. Not too shabby. If you project mine (6.61) it comes to 1070. So Mud is projected to beat me by 531 points for the season.

Friday the Third! (spooky music)

It's cranky Friday. So sit down and shutup.

		Team	Points	Bats	Slot	Arms	Start	Week
1.		Mudville Nine	15130	7725	6.97	7405	25.08	688
2.		EVIL EMPIRE	14982	7707	6.96	7275	24.64	938
3.		Sonic Death M	14974	7466	6.74	7508	25.43	824
4.		Wizzard of Ozz	14947	7567	6.83	7380	25.00	927
5.		The Congregati	14915	7323	6.61	7592	25.71	941
6.		Bru Cru	14464	7397	6.68	7067	23.93	695
7.		Banana Slugs	14174	6572	5.93	7602	25.75	637
8.		Florida Pirates	13921	7354	6.64	6567	22.24	815
9.		Little Leaguer	13921	7216	6.51	6705	22.71	692
10.		Mac & Zack A	13340	7038	6.35	6302	21.34	645
11.		Columbus Mad	12861	6563	5.92	6298	21.33	667
12.		Rosies Angels	12626	6458	5.83	6168	20.89	841

Mud finally stumbled. The league rejoices. (and although reports to the contrary, I did NOT put that banana peel on the track). This basically just squashed the upper five teams. The first five are almost within 200 points. It is a testament to Mudville's success so far that he can have a horrible week and still maintain a 150 point lead.

As far as position, Sonic and Evil swapped positions as well as Little Leaguer and Florida Pirates. The top is getting tight. Still anyone's ballgame.

The bats number acted normal for once. Some up, some down. It looks like 7 is the pinnacle. Like a .400 batting average. Hard to do. Of course if I had played ball it would have been pretty easy (joke). Do something for me, next time you go into a batting cage try a new grip. Slide your top hand (right hand for right handed batters) up about 8 to 10 inches. Hold it like that in your stance and as you swing let it slide down to your other hand. I haven't tried this in a batting cage but it sure feels like you have a lot more control and can generate more batspeed initially. I was just swinging a bat when I tried it. Just remember when guys are making 100's of millions of dollars using this technique, you heard it here first.

The arms number acted normal as well. Ozzie jumped .19. I guess the big news is Mud dropping .49. Banana also dropped .40 but he was so high it still didn't knock him out of the lead.

All in all a good week. Mud got bogged down. The upper teams got a little closer. The bats and arms numbers looked good. And Bonds went down with a career ending injury.

Well almost a good week.

Derek Jeter Leads Yankees to Victory with Dramatic Walk-Off Intangible

Derek Jeter led the Yankees to an exciting, come-from-behind victory over the Orioles last night with a dramatic, walk-off, bases loaded intangible. It was the shortstop’s 1,148th career game-winning intangible, extending his major league record.
Jeter came to the plate against Baltimore closer Chris Ray in the bottom of the ninth inning with the bases loaded, two outs and the Yankees trailing 6-3. But seconds later his unmatched intangibles cleared the bases and had New York celebrating an exciting win before a roaring home crowd.
“It was amazing to see,” said recent Yankees acquisition Bobby Abreu. “I’ve long heard about Jeter’s intangibles and how his true worth can’t be measured by his somewhat pedestrian numbers, but this is the first time I witnessed it with my own eyes. It’s still unclear to me exactly what happened. I remember him going up to the plate. There was maybe a pitch or two and then a great flash of light shot out of him and filled the sky. Then the next thing I knew everyone was celebrating at home plate. It was totally surreal. But great, because we really needed the win.”

Friday Follies!

Sorry for the lapse. Going to make today's extra special. Maybe add a little horseradish sauce to it.

		Team	Total	Bats	/Slot		Arms	/Start	Week
1.		Mudville Nine	14442	7316	7.00		7126	25.59	1993
2.		Sonic Death	14150	6997	6.70		7153	25.69	2009
3.		EVIL EMPIRE	14044	7228	6.92		6816	24.48	1715
4.		Wizzard of Ozz	14020	7114	6.81		6906	24.80	1883
5.		The Congregat	13974	6832	6.54		7142	25.65	1777
6.		Bru Cru	13769	6963	6.66		6806	24.44	1823
7.		Banana Slugs	13537	6255	5.99		7282	26.15	1583
8.		Little Leaguer	13229	6779	6.49		6450	23.16	1682
9.		Florida Pirates	13106	6929	6.63		6177	22.18	1877
10.		Mac & Zack A	12695	6584	6.30		6111	21.95	1577
11.		Columbus Mad	12194	6222	5.95		5972	21.45	1591
12.		Rosies Angels	11785	6024	5.77		5761	20.69	1363

Two weeks can provide a little more to look at. The big news is SDM's run. He averaged over 1000 points a week. While his bats regressed his arms more than made up for the decline. He leap frogged into second place which Evil seemed to have a lock on. Sonic had a great two weeks but you have to mention Mudville's ability to consistently put up good numbers. There is this big pack running their guts out just waiting for Mud to trip up but he doesn't.

Sonic jumped into second on Arms. Banana is still way out in front. SDM gained .12 points. Pretty good even for 2 weeks.

Well it looks like everyone is down on bats. I am sick of that number swinging one way and then another. I can't figure out why. So if your down this week take heart. Mud is still tops in this category (as well as the one that counts).

Mud just keeps right on rollin'. Sonic is in the passing lane and breaking out of the pack. I am checking my tire pressure by the side of the road. Can Sonic use him momentum to catch Mud? Will Evil right the ship and get on the right track or keep fading? Will I ever write a good Follies? ... The only place to find out is here.

What a boring week

I hate the All Star game. But now it's over and we can get back to baseball as normal.

		Team	Total	Bats	/Slot	Arms	/Start	Week
1.		Mudville Nine	12449	6261	7.02	6187	26.03	438
2.		EVIL EMPIR	12329	6239	7.00	6089	25.62	441
3.		The Congrega	12197	5976	6.70	6221	26.18	515
4.		Sonic Death	12141	6065	6.80	6076	25.57	651
5.		Wizzard of O	12137	6133	6.88	6004	25.26	373
6.		Banana Slugs	11954	5435	6.09	6518	27.43	577
7.		Bru Cru	11946	6099	6.84	5847	24.60	446
8.		Little Leaguer	11547	5964	6.69	5585	23.50	345
9.		Florida Pirate	11229	5956	6.68	5272	22.18	500
10.		Mac & Zack A	11118	5724	6.42	5364	22.57	403
11.		Columbus Ma	10603	5467	6.13	5135	21.61	325
12.		Rosies Angels	10422	5241	5.88	5181	21.80	369

Sonic had a great week, thanks to a 101 point outing by Bedard. He comes in top of the 'star shortened week', while Columbus came in last. Mudville maintained his lead over Evil while his brother (ozzie) dropped down two spots. Sonic made the big move up going from 6th to 4th. Bru dropped two spots as well. Basically the 3 through 7 spots all changed while the rest stayed exactly the same.

Mudville raised his bats average the most this week (.10). Banana came in second with .07. Mudville took the lead in this category passing Evil. 6.59 is the average so you can see where you fall.

Sonic blasted his way to the arms average lead. Advancing .75 points to a total of 25.57. This was quite a significant gain. No one came close. Banana still holds the lead by a large margin. I am closest to him but I am 1.25 behind. To put that in perspective there are almost 5 other teams within 1.25 of me. He is dominating this statistic.

Mudville and Evil are setting pretty nice up there while the rest of us are jockeying for position. If this week is any indicaiton, Sonic is primed for a move toward the top.

Fireworks and Duds

Hope you had a nice week with the 4th and all. Been a busy week for me. I'm afraid my 'rooting' time has been cut back and as you can tell my team has suffered as a consequence.

		Team	Points	Bats	/Slot	Arms	/Start	Week
1.		Mudville Nine	12011	5924	6.92	6087	26.69	912
2.		EVIL EMPIRE	11888	5975	6.98	5913	25.93	1031
3.		Wizzard of Ozzie	11764	5902	6.90	5862	25.71	1045
4.		The Congregatio	11682	5716	6.68	5966	26.16	786
5.		Bru Cru	11500	5859	6.85	5641	24.74	817
6.		Sonic Death Mo	11490	5830	6.81	5660	24.82	844
7.		Banana Slugs	11377	5152	6.02	6225	27.30	906
8.		Little Leaguer	11202	5722	6.69	5480	24.03	856
9.		Florida Pirates	10729	5727	6.69	5005	21.95	794
10.		Mac & Zack At	10715	5444	6.36	5271	23.11	841
11.		Columbus Mad	10278	5242	6.13	5039	22.10	952
12.		Rosies Angels	10053	5063	5.92	4990	21.88	705

A little more movement this week. Mud has maintain his level of excellence. Consistency has been his forte. Evil and Ozzie BOTH moved up a slot and I dropped TWO! I am in the process of building miniature versions of my pitchers so I can torture them like they do me. PLUS, Columbus passed Rosie!!! Worst week was had by Rosie while best week was had by Ozzie. Both Ozzie and Evil had extraordinarily good weeks.

I think I may have found the anomaly that had jacked my bat stats. I use the Royals schedule to count the days into the season but they didn't play the last day of May so it would appear to me that only 30 games were played in May. Now I actually know that there are 31 days in May but I was just looking at the schedule. So it appears that everyone's numbers are down this week. Actually if we look at the numbers Ozzie is the only one that maintained his average from last week. The rest of us fell back... some more than others....

Starts would have the same problem. We are all down this week. At least I think we are because I got tired of looking and just kind of gave it a cursory glance. You know, mailing it in.

I would give a short synopsis of where teams are heading at the moment but it would basically involve saying a lot of negative things about myself and I am not secure enough today to venture down that road. So to sum up... you all stink.

This Week in Baseball

Welcome. I looked ahead at all the trades I would have to analyze and became discouraged. I wanted to just do the ones that were done before the season started but that was still a tall order. I will do some if I feel like it. But I also had to work today (very much needed) and wouldn't you know it, afternoon games so I can't use stattracker to tell me the breakdown in points... I will have to do it by hand. It might be faster to subtract from that than to add it all from standings..... It will get done. IF your reading this, it got done.

		Team	Total	Bats	/Slot	Arms	/Start	Week
1.		Mudville Nine	11099	5481	7.00	5618	26.90	1018
2.		The Congrega	10896	5310	6.78	5586	26.75	869
3.		EVIL EMPIR	10857	5477	6.99	5380	25.76	887
4.		Wizzard of O	10719	5404	6.90	5315	25.45	890
5.		Bru Cru	10683	5372	6.86	5311	25.43	1086
6.		Sonic Death	10646	5369	6.85	5277	25.27	916
7.		Banana Slug	10471	4759	6.07	5711	27.35	976
8.		Little Leagu	10346	5304	6.77	5042	24.14	782
9.		Florida Pira	9935	5300	6.76	4635	22.19	772
10.		Mac & Zack	9874	5076	6.48	4798	22.97	854
11.		Rosies Ang	9348	4706	6.01	4642	22.23	617
12.		Columbus M	9319	4814	6.14	4505	21.57	762

Sonic held his spot that he gained last week and Banana moved up one spot. Little Leaguer has been passed two times in the last two weeks. Bru had the best week while Mud topped 1000 as well. Rosie had the worst. Generally points were up this week. Banana almost reached the 1000 plateau.

Bru had the best gain on /slot with a .09. Evil also had a good week boosting his average up .o6. Mud is still the tops though reaching the 7 barrier.

Mud had the biggest gain in the /start category upping his average by .32 points. By far the biggest gain.

This week didn't change much except that Mud extended his lead over me. Basically I dropped back as Evil is in position to pass me by. Pretty much everything else is status quo except that Bru is in posiiton to move up the ladder.

Enjoy your weekend!

Dan Uggla for Juan Pierre

Finally a straight up one for one trade. Little Leaguer gave Juan Pierre to Ozzie for Dan Uggla. Before we jump to conclusions lets look at the numbers.

2006

• Juan Pierre. He produced 1226 points in 162 games for 7.56/game. That puts him 35th overall in points produced. Not bad at all. Juan was 29 and of course and OF.
• Dan Uggla. Had an awesome rookie season. He produced 1215 points in 154 games for 7.88/game. That number is higher than Pierre's but it really doesn't mean much because we are rewarded for guys that play a lot and Juan does. Uggla was three years younger than Pierre (26) and a 2B.

What would you have done? At first blush Little Leaguer came out ahead. A 2B has more value than an OF'er. He was younger while putting up very similar numbers. I can understand maybe Ozzie trying to sell Uggla when he is high in value. Pierre was a more consistent and sure investment. No one really knows how a second year player will respond (angel Berroa anyone?). Plus with any trade involving position players you have to consider the team's needs. So lets see how this looks half a year later.

2007

• Pierre. 541 in 78 games (6.93). Pierre has been his consistent self. He is rarely hurt and generally puts up a decent amount of point and doing the same this year. 1109.5 is his projection. A little off last years pace but not much. He is ranked 21st in OFers.
  
• Uggla. 652 points in 78 games (8.35). He is raking. His power numbers are awesome. Projection of 1336.6. He is second among 2b in points so far this year (behind only Ozzie's Utley). Uggla has turned into that power 2b that seems to be popping up nowadays in the league. Looks like an all star for years to come.

So far Uggla has outplayed Pierre. Factor in his youth and type of player (power as opposed to Pierre who is a lead-off type) and he should continue to produce longer. Ozzie HAD to trade one of his 2B. What was important was what he got in return. He didn't get equal value. That would have been hard to do with Uggla since he has been stellar this year. There is no clear 'theft' here. While LL got a GREAT deal, Ozzie didn't get hung out to dry.

Grades so far
Ozzie B-
LL A+

Anibal/Sowers for Halladay

Second trade up for discussion. This one has Ozzie trading Jeremy Sowers and Anibal Sánchez to Sonic for Roy Halladay. At first blush this looks a lot like the previous trade but to less extremes. But it is eerily similar.

No one made a fuss about this one though that I can remember. First lets look at everyones stats from 2006

• Sanchez. 633 points in 114.1 IP for a excellent P/IP of 5.54. Anibal had GREAT numbers and was only 22. He issued 46 BB which was a little high but maintained a low 1.19 WHIP. A VERY promising young SP.
• Sowers. 441 points in 88.1 IP for very good 5.00 P/IP. He was 23 so very young. He didn't have a lot of K's (35) but you would expect that from a lefty. He kept his walk rate down which would indicate good control which would be essential for him. These were both rising stars.
• Halladay. He had an excellent 2006. 1160 points in 220 IP for a 5.20 P/IP. Of course he benefited from a lot of IP. Halladay hasn't been free from injury so there was some risk there. For two years in a row he pitched 239 and 266 innings. A TON! You can see the next two years he paid for it. That gets us to 2006, maybe if he keeps his IP reasonable he can stay healthy. Maybe. What surprised me about Halladay was his age. I thouht he was older but only 29.

I can't tell you their health at the time of the trade. Anibal would eventually have major shoulder trouble and is out for the season. Another Girardi victim? Sowers has been terrible this year. Again, I don't know if health is involved but he is in the minors. Subsequently they have both been dropped from Sonic's roster and are out there for the taking. Anibal must have been demoted because he isn't on the DL. And since he doesn't rank as a rookie anymore he can't be kept on the roster. Both Sowers and Sanchez could be good pickups if they turn it around but the fact remains that they didn't help Sonic at all.

Halladay has 529 points in 97.1 IP. P/IP of 5.44. He is having another great year.

Looking back at the trade when it happened, it looked like Sonic set himself up for a long time. Two very good young pitchers (better than the ones Mud traded for Smoltz) for a very good older pitcher. He had the advantage of 2 for 1 plus Halladay has been injury prone. A slam dunk. Boy did it ever turn out different. This has been a slam dunk for Ozzie and we don't have to wait to figure it out. It is already over since Sonic has dropped them both. If Halladay goes on to his projection of 1110 this trade has been super for Ozzie.

I would have done it. If I was in Sonic's shoes, I would have JUMPED at this trade. How did Ozzie know? Again, I don't follow the whole league as well as I should so some things may have been public knowledge, but still.

Grade: (as of now)

• Sonic F
  
• Ozzie A+
  

So who is Cedric Tallis?

Cedric Tallis was the Kansas City Royals' first GM. He was a very shrewd evaluator of talent that quickly got the expansion team of 69 going in the right direction. But what is most impressive about Cedric is that he consistently hosed his competitors in trades. Here is a link that gives a lot of his history with the Royals.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-royals-of-sir-cedric/

So I am in search of a candidate to give the Cedric Tallis award to this year. Now I understand this is really impossible because one year does not tell the whole tale of a trade. But we can look at some numbers and see who really knew what they were doing... or got lucky. To do this we will from time to time look at the trades made and see how they are progressing. It is frustrating that we cannot look back on trades made last year. I feel this is one of the missing components of yahoo, a viewable history. There is no way to know who was in first at a specific time in the season and it is impossible look back at trades made in other seasons. That is what this blog is useful for. We can jot it down here and it will be recorded for all to gaze at in wonder for years to come.

The very first trade of the season was a doozy.

Mudville Nine traded Chien-Ming Wang and Josh Johnson to Bru Cru for John Smoltz. Mudville stated that he was playing for this year. Two young starters for an aging but very good veteran. And boy did the league react. Everyone was saying that Mud had lost his mind. That Bru would now dominate again! That cheese smelled like cotton candy!

Well maybe not the last one.

To analyze this trade we have to look at 2006 numbers.

1. Smoltz. He was awesome. 1301 points. The three pitchers with more points were J.Santana, B. Webb and A. Harang. A top 5 pitcher with great k/bb rate of 211/55. But you would also have seen a very high Innings pitched of 232 ranking him fifth behind the four previous pitchers mentioned and Arroyo. To understand how well a pitcher is actually pitching as compared to not just pitching a lot, we have to look at points/IP (P/IP). John is at 5.60. We will see how that compares to the other SP.
2. Wang. He was above average. 1045 in 218 IP. But we have to remember that he is 13 years younger than Smoltz too. A decent pitcher that is only 26 that can put up better than average numbers is very valuable. He also pitches for the Yankees so run support shouldn't be a problem (or so we thought). Then we look at his P/IP and it comes in at 4.79. Significantly lower. Does youth make the difference worth it? Each GM would have to answer that one personally.
3. Johnson. He put up amazing numbers for a rookie. 859 in 157. He is 17 years younger than Smoltz! His P/IP is an astounding 5.47 just slightly off Smoltz'.

On the surface it looks like Mud sold his soul to get Smoltz. Two quality YOUNG SP for one great OLD SP. Before we look at this years numbers, we have to talk about Johnson. I do not have all the particulars and don't know the whole story but this is what I remember. Girardi put Johnson back in after about a 45 minute rain delay. A very, very risky move especially with a 22 year old. I don't know what Girardi was thinking but it didn't work out. Soon after Josh wasn't the same and I even think he went on the DL, not sure. Girardi overpitched his young starters and what he did to Josh was criminal. My only hope is that Girardi ends up somewhere other than KC (he has even said he would consider KC along with NY, and some other big market team.... scary). Mud surely knew all this and maybe even Bru. Because Smoltz for Wang wouldn't be the worst trade made this year. And the rest is ... no, not history but this year.

2007.

1. Smoltz. Has been good. 515 in 94.2 IP. P/IP of 5.4. He will not equal his total from last year just because it is unlikely that he will pitch as many innings. We are almost halfway and he is nowhere close to halfway. Looking at it again he isn't so far off but he is falling off the pace. Projection of 1081.5
   
2. Wang. 426 in 84.2. Pretty Good. P/IP of 5.05 which is good but he hasn't pitched as much. He was on the DL wasn't he. He could still have an awesome second half but his win totals will be nowhere near last year's. He has fallen off his 2006 pace. Projection of 894.6
   
3. Johnson. Ouch! No points. Just pitched in two games and hasn't gotten out of the 4th inning. The big question is will he ever be the same again? I don't know the nature of his injury (hopefully not shoulder) but you have to give him some time before you can answer those questions. Projection? 0
   

So far Mud is winning this one but the book isn't finished. IF Mud goes on to win this season then you could make the argument that he won (DUH! in the trade I mean). What would you trade off for one winning season? And if he goes on to win, you could say this trade made it happen. While this has been a good trade for Mud it is by no means a 'Cedric'... yet.