Thursday, June 28, 2007

Dan Uggla for Juan Pierre

Finally a straight up one for one trade. Little Leaguer gave Juan Pierre to Ozzie for Dan Uggla. Before we jump to conclusions lets look at the numbers.

2006

  • Juan Pierre. He produced 1226 points in 162 games for 7.56/game. That puts him 35th overall in points produced. Not bad at all. Juan was 29 and of course and OF.
  • Dan Uggla. Had an awesome rookie season. He produced 1215 points in 154 games for 7.88/game. That number is higher than Pierre's but it really doesn't mean much because we are rewarded for guys that play a lot and Juan does. Uggla was three years younger than Pierre (26) and a 2B.
What would you have done? At first blush Little Leaguer came out ahead. A 2B has more value than an OF'er. He was younger while putting up very similar numbers. I can understand maybe Ozzie trying to sell Uggla when he is high in value. Pierre was a more consistent and sure investment. No one really knows how a second year player will respond (angel Berroa anyone?). Plus with any trade involving position players you have to consider the team's needs. So lets see how this looks half a year later.

2007
  • Pierre. 541 in 78 games (6.93). Pierre has been his consistent self. He is rarely hurt and generally puts up a decent amount of point and doing the same this year. 1109.5 is his projection. A little off last years pace but not much. He is ranked 21st in OFers.
  • Uggla. 652 points in 78 games (8.35). He is raking. His power numbers are awesome. Projection of 1336.6. He is second among 2b in points so far this year (behind only Ozzie's Utley). Uggla has turned into that power 2b that seems to be popping up nowadays in the league. Looks like an all star for years to come.
So far Uggla has outplayed Pierre. Factor in his youth and type of player (power as opposed to Pierre who is a lead-off type) and he should continue to produce longer. Ozzie HAD to trade one of his 2B. What was important was what he got in return. He didn't get equal value. That would have been hard to do with Uggla since he has been stellar this year. There is no clear 'theft' here. While LL got a GREAT deal, Ozzie didn't get hung out to dry.

Grades so far
Ozzie B-
LL A+

No comments: