So who is Cedric Tallis?

Cedric Tallis was the Kansas City Royals' first GM. He was a very shrewd evaluator of talent that quickly got the expansion team of 69 going in the right direction. But what is most impressive about Cedric is that he consistently hosed his competitors in trades. Here is a link that gives a lot of his history with the Royals.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-royals-of-sir-cedric/

So I am in search of a candidate to give the Cedric Tallis award to this year. Now I understand this is really impossible because one year does not tell the whole tale of a trade. But we can look at some numbers and see who really knew what they were doing... or got lucky. To do this we will from time to time look at the trades made and see how they are progressing. It is frustrating that we cannot look back on trades made last year. I feel this is one of the missing components of yahoo, a viewable history. There is no way to know who was in first at a specific time in the season and it is impossible look back at trades made in other seasons. That is what this blog is useful for. We can jot it down here and it will be recorded for all to gaze at in wonder for years to come.

The very first trade of the season was a doozy.

Mudville Nine traded Chien-Ming Wang and Josh Johnson to Bru Cru for John Smoltz. Mudville stated that he was playing for this year. Two young starters for an aging but very good veteran. And boy did the league react. Everyone was saying that Mud had lost his mind. That Bru would now dominate again! That cheese smelled like cotton candy!

Well maybe not the last one.

To analyze this trade we have to look at 2006 numbers.

1. Smoltz. He was awesome. 1301 points. The three pitchers with more points were J.Santana, B. Webb and A. Harang. A top 5 pitcher with great k/bb rate of 211/55. But you would also have seen a very high Innings pitched of 232 ranking him fifth behind the four previous pitchers mentioned and Arroyo. To understand how well a pitcher is actually pitching as compared to not just pitching a lot, we have to look at points/IP (P/IP). John is at 5.60. We will see how that compares to the other SP.
2. Wang. He was above average. 1045 in 218 IP. But we have to remember that he is 13 years younger than Smoltz too. A decent pitcher that is only 26 that can put up better than average numbers is very valuable. He also pitches for the Yankees so run support shouldn't be a problem (or so we thought). Then we look at his P/IP and it comes in at 4.79. Significantly lower. Does youth make the difference worth it? Each GM would have to answer that one personally.
3. Johnson. He put up amazing numbers for a rookie. 859 in 157. He is 17 years younger than Smoltz! His P/IP is an astounding 5.47 just slightly off Smoltz'.

On the surface it looks like Mud sold his soul to get Smoltz. Two quality YOUNG SP for one great OLD SP. Before we look at this years numbers, we have to talk about Johnson. I do not have all the particulars and don't know the whole story but this is what I remember. Girardi put Johnson back in after about a 45 minute rain delay. A very, very risky move especially with a 22 year old. I don't know what Girardi was thinking but it didn't work out. Soon after Josh wasn't the same and I even think he went on the DL, not sure. Girardi overpitched his young starters and what he did to Josh was criminal. My only hope is that Girardi ends up somewhere other than KC (he has even said he would consider KC along with NY, and some other big market team.... scary). Mud surely knew all this and maybe even Bru. Because Smoltz for Wang wouldn't be the worst trade made this year. And the rest is ... no, not history but this year.

2007.

1. Smoltz. Has been good. 515 in 94.2 IP. P/IP of 5.4. He will not equal his total from last year just because it is unlikely that he will pitch as many innings. We are almost halfway and he is nowhere close to halfway. Looking at it again he isn't so far off but he is falling off the pace. Projection of 1081.5
   
2. Wang. 426 in 84.2. Pretty Good. P/IP of 5.05 which is good but he hasn't pitched as much. He was on the DL wasn't he. He could still have an awesome second half but his win totals will be nowhere near last year's. He has fallen off his 2006 pace. Projection of 894.6
   
3. Johnson. Ouch! No points. Just pitched in two games and hasn't gotten out of the 4th inning. The big question is will he ever be the same again? I don't know the nature of his injury (hopefully not shoulder) but you have to give him some time before you can answer those questions. Projection? 0
   

So far Mud is winning this one but the book isn't finished. IF Mud goes on to win this season then you could make the argument that he won (DUH! in the trade I mean). What would you trade off for one winning season? And if he goes on to win, you could say this trade made it happen. While this has been a good trade for Mud it is by no means a 'Cedric'... yet.