Chart

Go ahead and click on it for a bigger view. As you can tell it gets kind of hard to follow. When I have it in the program I can highlight any person which is cool. I will try to find a better way to represent the numbers.

The Giambi Confession: Friday Analysis

I am real excited to do the report this week, it's the first time the leader board is finally in the right order.

The numbers:

	Team	Total	Bats	/Slot		Arms	/Arm	Week
1.	Congre	7091	3229	7.35		3862	41.2	990
2.	Mudvill	7051	3264	7.43		3787	40.4	950
3.	EVIL E	6876	3224	7.34		3228	34.4	873
4.	Wizzard	6805	3252	7.40		3553	37.9	793
5.	Bru Cru	6786	3255	7.41		3531	37.7	889
6.	Little L	6780	3184	7.25		3596	38.4	872
7.	Banana	6765	2836	6.46		3929	41.9	825
8.	Sonic D	6439	3167	7.21		3272	34.9	880
9.	Florida	6403	3177	7.23		3226	34.4	873
10.	Mac &	6108	2949	6.71		3159	33.7	679
11.	Columb	6031	2887	6.57		3144	33.5	992
12.	Rosies	5755	2715	6.18		3040	32.4	764

Columbus wins this week and Mac loses. I tweaked the pitching stat. The points per slot was a growing number and I wanted an average number that would be consistent. So I took the total pitching stats, divided it per slot (9), and then divided that by what would be the average start for this point of the season (10.4). So now we can see how that number fluctuates just like the bats number.

Speaking of the bats/slot used number, I must have either calculated that number wrong this week or last week (I am pretty sure this weeks is right). I say that because everyone jumped up. I really don't feel like going over last weeks number so I can't say for sure. Maybe we all just did really good this week.

Things are still close. Mudville and I are real close and unless his pitchers do as bad as mine did last night, he will take the lead today. I had a great opportunity to put some distance between us last night and my pitchers let me down. Three starter got me a little over 50 points. Blech! After those two, we have a tight group of five. All of then almost within 100 points of each other. Of course now that I am in the top spot, I could care less about it being a close race!

So there you go. Overall, points were down a bit this week. And at least I can say I was in first at least once!

Projection

I forgot to do this last week so I am only going to post Mudville's total point projection. Last year Bru won it with 21,951 points. As of one fourth of the season, Mud is on pace for 24,404. The only statistical change for this year is that BB produce one extra point. Without looking the numbers up, An average amount of walks would be around 50. Ok, so I pulled the number out of my posterior but you get what you pay for. 50 x 9 = 450. That is a rough number but it still falls way short of making up the difference between last year and this year.

So we are doing better this year.

First Quarter Reviews

The season is pretty much 1/4 done. Seems like it just started. I am still waiting for some guys to heat up. Let's look at the numbers. I have my apple turnover and I'm ready to go!

	Team	Total	Bats	/Gm	Arms	/Arm	Week
1.	Mudville N	6101	2808	7.27	3293	274.4	907
2.	Congregati	6037	2756	7.13	3281	273.4	1131
3.	Wizzard of	6012	2812	7.28	3200	266.6	893
4.	EVIL EMP	6003	2768	7.17	3235	269.5	972
5.	Banana Slu	5940	2415	6.25	3525	293.7	794
6.	Little Leag	5908	2757	7.14	3151	262.5	989
7.	Bru Cru	5897	2860	7.40	3037	253.0	781
8.	Sonic Deat	5559	2714	7.03	2845	237.0	796
9.	Florida Pir	5530	2762	7.15	2768	230.6	822
10.	Mac & Zac	5429	2554	6.61	2875	239.5	869
11.	Columbus	5039	2447	6.33	2592	216.0	747
12.	Rosies Ang	4991	2343	6.06	2648	220.6	817

I added a new stat. It is the pitching total divided by 12 or your total pitching roster. It gives the average points per pitcher. It helps to quantify your pitching number just like the 'Bats/slots used' does. Obviously Banana S. comes in with the highest.

I think only Rosie (.11), Little Leaguer (.01) and Congregationals (.10) were up this week as far as Bats. A lot of regression there. That number will start to move less the farther we get into the season. A 7.5 might top that stat for the year. I personally was shooting for above 7.0 realizing my offense was pretty weak and young so I am happy right now. The one stat I wanted to lead in was AB and this week I took the lead. It is the one stat I can kind of control. But I am dead last in HR's.

Last week we had 6 teams that totaled over 900 for the week. This week only 4. Banana Slugs who had the highest total so far last week with 1139, had the second to lowest this week (It didn't help that he left Durbin on the bench last night, ouch!). I had a good week :) One really good week for anyone in the top seven will almost put them in the lead.

As far as position, B. Slugs and Bru both dropped this week while I jumped up. Not that it really matters at this point because we are all still pretty close together. Mudville has held the top spot two weeks in a row now.

Well we have entered the first turn and we are still bunched together. Mudville is riding the rail but he has no separation from the pack. It's anybodies race!

(Two apple turnovers wouldn't be too bad of a thing right? It IS Friday after all).

Now here is a league I should dominate

Novel idea. I find it amusing that we can find so many ways to 'participate' in sports. I remember guys playing fantasy baseball when I was in college (90). I always wondered how they kept track of stuff. Did they do it all by hand? As you can tell I didn't participate. I guess betting has always been around. But this one is pretty novel. I can't say I would really want to be in that kind of a league, though.

What would you think about...?

This is only a 'throw out there to discuss' type thing. You know, like when you broach the subject of acquiring a new Harley with the wife... hopefully we will discuss this one a little longer than the Harley one.

I like how the points is setup. We know that hitters and starters are pretty even but even then, starting pitchers are more valuable, imo, because you need 10 of them as opposed to two of any position player, if that. I guess the difference between an average starting pitcher and a really good starting pitcher is greater than the same equivalent position player. But I like that because the game of baseball is that way.

But my one qualm is how much value is placed on a 'W' (win). I know that sounds really stupid... of course a win is the whole purpose of the game. But from a pitching standpoint it's not so important. A pitcher can keep his team in the game for 7 innings only to have the bullpen blow it or the offense win it in the 8th or 9th. So a matter of luck and 'team ability' plays into that stat. Not that it is a terrible thing, it's just what it is.

The significance of the W is probably most seen in that my pitcher was just better than your pitcher. Again, I don't think the W is worthless I just wonder how valuable it is.

I really like how the pitching result stats kind of graduate.

• 12 for a win (funny, I thought it was 10)
  
• 8 for a complete game
• 10 for a shutout

Alright, so it's not graduated. But I wonder what would happen if we divided that 12 for the W between a quality start and a win. Either 5(QS) - 7(W) or 6(QS) - 6(W). So it would look like this:

• 5 for a quality start
• 7 for a win
• 8 for a complete game
• 10 for a shutout

This would accomplish two good things. It would reward good pitching that didn't get the W and cut down on bad pitching that lucks into a W. I haven't looked at the numbers but I don't think it wouldn't skew the numbers that much. Usually a QS will get you a win so we are back to where we started, 12 points.

Does that sound stupid? Is it worth changing everything (next year of course)? I know some people disparage the QS stat, but I think it has it's place. So I have broached the subject, let everyone know how you feel.

Fini Frida

It is Friday again so here goes.

	Manager	Total	Bats	/Gm	Arms	Week
1.	Mudville Nine	5194	2378	7.36	2819	996
2.	Banana Slugs	5146	2035	6.30	3108	1139
3.	Wizzard of Oz	5119	2397	7.42	2725	965
4.	Bru Cru	5116	2487	7.69	2629	937
5.	EVIL EMPIRE	5031	2395	7.41	2636	803
6.	Little Leaguer	4919	2303	7.13	2616	909
7.	The Congrega	4906	2272	7.03	2634	901
8.	Sonic Death M	4763	2331	7.21	2432	939
9.	Florida Pirates	4708	2318	7.17	2390	839
10.	Mac & Zack A	4560	2182	6.75	2378	809
11.	Columbus Mad	4292	2080	6.43	2212	757
12.	Rosies Angels	4174	1925	5.95	2249	847

Well the obvious thing is Banana's amazing week. He beat out the closest by 143 points this week. Some very strong pitching performances (Marquis?!) and some decent hitting. He upped his hitting average by .15. If he would have gotten just marginal points out of his bats he would be running away with the league.

Bats as a general rule were down this week. I think only 3 or 4 were up. Mudville had a decent point total this week to keep the lead. Things are still tight at the top. Only 80 points separate the first four. The rest of us fell off the pace this week.

I lost 45 points this week. All just to watch Lincecum get shelled. If I lose by less than 45 points, I am going to be one bummed bumplesnort!

EE has 5 pitchers going tonight so look for a jump from the Evil Empire. Can you still call the Yankees an empire? By now they are pretty much just 'evil'.

First Friday in May

Things are tightening up a bit. The top seven are within 225 points.

	Manager	Total	Bats	Arms	B/Gm	Week
1.	EVIL EMPIRE	4228	1978	2250	7.46	957
2.	Mudville Nine	4198	1965	2233	7.41	895
3.	Bru Cru	4179	2066	2113	7.79	962
4.	Wizzard of Ozz	4154	1990	2164	7.50	864
5.	Little Leaguer	4010	1870	2140	7.05	880
6.	Banana Slugs	4007	1632	2375	6.15	930
7.	The Congregat	4005	1830	2175	6.90	967
8.	Florida Pirates	3869	1934	1935	7.29	959
9.	Sonic Death M	3824	1855	1969	7.00	800
10.	Mac & Zack At	3751	1807	1944	6.81	895
11.	Columbus Mad	3535	1698	1837	6.40	813
12.	Rosies Angels	3327	1567	1751	5.91	931

I added a stat. Total week points so we can tell who had a good week and who didn't. I'm having a hard time figuring out who had the best week, maybe you guys could figure it out. I can see that Gary had the worst!

As far as Bats/game, generally everyone improved. I think only Bru, Ozzie and Mac are the only ones who regressed. Banana improved, maybe his bats are starting to come around. Bru is still the leader with 7.79.

Banana is still the king of pitching! Mudville was a solid second last week but Evil has overtaken him. Actually, I think that happened to Nate a looooong time ago ;)

Big news in the league this week was trades. Specifically Mudville trying to turn over his entire roster. Looks like he is strengthening his bats for a run this year. But I don't think he sacrificed too much youth. The way I look at it, an old great player is still preferable to an average young player.

After one month the top four are within 100 points. That is good. It is likely though, that as we get farther into the season, we will see more separation. But this is the third different leader in three weeks so at least those three guys are still keeping it close. And I suppose April is the worst month for evaluating a season. Last year about this time I actually got into first place for a couple of days, and I wasn't anywhere close at the end.

Prospectin'

I love the two added slots for prospects. And with all the discussion about rules and clauses (can you keep a prospect from the previous year a 'prospect' if he is still in the minors? It sure is amazing how complicating it can sound), I thought a 'prospect discussion' was in order.

Why did you pick up who you picked up? What list do you think is the best? Do you check their minor league stats?

Personally, I know Kansas City prospects because I am a fan mostly. I don't follow all the publications or websites. I have two prospects (won't tell you about the third one stashed in the drawer) and I know both because of my Royals curse. Hochevar obviously is a Royals prospect. He has good stuff and has been decent. Scouts at spring training said he was the best pitcher there (please remember this was the ROYALS' training camp) and his stats at AA are pretty good. But Lincecum I know because the Royals passed on him in last year's draft.

Here is a video of his delivery. From the front you can see how he falls over his left foot swinging in. But the side view is what is really interesting. That long stride. The kid throws 100 mph and is only 5'10''. Add that with his funky delivery and you have a good candidate for tommy john and mediocrity. But....

If this kid can throw like that without blowing his arm out, he is going to be very special.

clipped from www.youtube.com