This Week in Baseball

Welcome. I looked ahead at all the trades I would have to analyze and became discouraged. I wanted to just do the ones that were done before the season started but that was still a tall order. I will do some if I feel like it. But I also had to work today (very much needed) and wouldn't you know it, afternoon games so I can't use stattracker to tell me the breakdown in points... I will have to do it by hand. It might be faster to subtract from that than to add it all from standings..... It will get done. IF your reading this, it got done.

		Team	Total	Bats	/Slot	Arms	/Start	Week
1.		Mudville Nine	11099	5481	7.00	5618	26.90	1018
2.		The Congrega	10896	5310	6.78	5586	26.75	869
3.		EVIL EMPIR	10857	5477	6.99	5380	25.76	887
4.		Wizzard of O	10719	5404	6.90	5315	25.45	890
5.		Bru Cru	10683	5372	6.86	5311	25.43	1086
6.		Sonic Death	10646	5369	6.85	5277	25.27	916
7.		Banana Slug	10471	4759	6.07	5711	27.35	976
8.		Little Leagu	10346	5304	6.77	5042	24.14	782
9.		Florida Pira	9935	5300	6.76	4635	22.19	772
10.		Mac & Zack	9874	5076	6.48	4798	22.97	854
11.		Rosies Ang	9348	4706	6.01	4642	22.23	617
12.		Columbus M	9319	4814	6.14	4505	21.57	762

Sonic held his spot that he gained last week and Banana moved up one spot. Little Leaguer has been passed two times in the last two weeks. Bru had the best week while Mud topped 1000 as well. Rosie had the worst. Generally points were up this week. Banana almost reached the 1000 plateau.

Bru had the best gain on /slot with a .09. Evil also had a good week boosting his average up .o6. Mud is still the tops though reaching the 7 barrier.

Mud had the biggest gain in the /start category upping his average by .32 points. By far the biggest gain.

This week didn't change much except that Mud extended his lead over me. Basically I dropped back as Evil is in position to pass me by. Pretty much everything else is status quo except that Bru is in posiiton to move up the ladder.

Enjoy your weekend!

Dan Uggla for Juan Pierre

Finally a straight up one for one trade. Little Leaguer gave Juan Pierre to Ozzie for Dan Uggla. Before we jump to conclusions lets look at the numbers.

2006

• Juan Pierre. He produced 1226 points in 162 games for 7.56/game. That puts him 35th overall in points produced. Not bad at all. Juan was 29 and of course and OF.
• Dan Uggla. Had an awesome rookie season. He produced 1215 points in 154 games for 7.88/game. That number is higher than Pierre's but it really doesn't mean much because we are rewarded for guys that play a lot and Juan does. Uggla was three years younger than Pierre (26) and a 2B.

What would you have done? At first blush Little Leaguer came out ahead. A 2B has more value than an OF'er. He was younger while putting up very similar numbers. I can understand maybe Ozzie trying to sell Uggla when he is high in value. Pierre was a more consistent and sure investment. No one really knows how a second year player will respond (angel Berroa anyone?). Plus with any trade involving position players you have to consider the team's needs. So lets see how this looks half a year later.

2007

• Pierre. 541 in 78 games (6.93). Pierre has been his consistent self. He is rarely hurt and generally puts up a decent amount of point and doing the same this year. 1109.5 is his projection. A little off last years pace but not much. He is ranked 21st in OFers.
  
• Uggla. 652 points in 78 games (8.35). He is raking. His power numbers are awesome. Projection of 1336.6. He is second among 2b in points so far this year (behind only Ozzie's Utley). Uggla has turned into that power 2b that seems to be popping up nowadays in the league. Looks like an all star for years to come.

So far Uggla has outplayed Pierre. Factor in his youth and type of player (power as opposed to Pierre who is a lead-off type) and he should continue to produce longer. Ozzie HAD to trade one of his 2B. What was important was what he got in return. He didn't get equal value. That would have been hard to do with Uggla since he has been stellar this year. There is no clear 'theft' here. While LL got a GREAT deal, Ozzie didn't get hung out to dry.

Grades so far
Ozzie B-
LL A+

Anibal/Sowers for Halladay

Second trade up for discussion. This one has Ozzie trading Jeremy Sowers and Anibal Sánchez to Sonic for Roy Halladay. At first blush this looks a lot like the previous trade but to less extremes. But it is eerily similar.

No one made a fuss about this one though that I can remember. First lets look at everyones stats from 2006

• Sanchez. 633 points in 114.1 IP for a excellent P/IP of 5.54. Anibal had GREAT numbers and was only 22. He issued 46 BB which was a little high but maintained a low 1.19 WHIP. A VERY promising young SP.
• Sowers. 441 points in 88.1 IP for very good 5.00 P/IP. He was 23 so very young. He didn't have a lot of K's (35) but you would expect that from a lefty. He kept his walk rate down which would indicate good control which would be essential for him. These were both rising stars.
• Halladay. He had an excellent 2006. 1160 points in 220 IP for a 5.20 P/IP. Of course he benefited from a lot of IP. Halladay hasn't been free from injury so there was some risk there. For two years in a row he pitched 239 and 266 innings. A TON! You can see the next two years he paid for it. That gets us to 2006, maybe if he keeps his IP reasonable he can stay healthy. Maybe. What surprised me about Halladay was his age. I thouht he was older but only 29.

I can't tell you their health at the time of the trade. Anibal would eventually have major shoulder trouble and is out for the season. Another Girardi victim? Sowers has been terrible this year. Again, I don't know if health is involved but he is in the minors. Subsequently they have both been dropped from Sonic's roster and are out there for the taking. Anibal must have been demoted because he isn't on the DL. And since he doesn't rank as a rookie anymore he can't be kept on the roster. Both Sowers and Sanchez could be good pickups if they turn it around but the fact remains that they didn't help Sonic at all.

Halladay has 529 points in 97.1 IP. P/IP of 5.44. He is having another great year.

Looking back at the trade when it happened, it looked like Sonic set himself up for a long time. Two very good young pitchers (better than the ones Mud traded for Smoltz) for a very good older pitcher. He had the advantage of 2 for 1 plus Halladay has been injury prone. A slam dunk. Boy did it ever turn out different. This has been a slam dunk for Ozzie and we don't have to wait to figure it out. It is already over since Sonic has dropped them both. If Halladay goes on to his projection of 1110 this trade has been super for Ozzie.

I would have done it. If I was in Sonic's shoes, I would have JUMPED at this trade. How did Ozzie know? Again, I don't follow the whole league as well as I should so some things may have been public knowledge, but still.

Grade: (as of now)

• Sonic F
  
• Ozzie A+
  

So who is Cedric Tallis?

Cedric Tallis was the Kansas City Royals' first GM. He was a very shrewd evaluator of talent that quickly got the expansion team of 69 going in the right direction. But what is most impressive about Cedric is that he consistently hosed his competitors in trades. Here is a link that gives a lot of his history with the Royals.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-royals-of-sir-cedric/

So I am in search of a candidate to give the Cedric Tallis award to this year. Now I understand this is really impossible because one year does not tell the whole tale of a trade. But we can look at some numbers and see who really knew what they were doing... or got lucky. To do this we will from time to time look at the trades made and see how they are progressing. It is frustrating that we cannot look back on trades made last year. I feel this is one of the missing components of yahoo, a viewable history. There is no way to know who was in first at a specific time in the season and it is impossible look back at trades made in other seasons. That is what this blog is useful for. We can jot it down here and it will be recorded for all to gaze at in wonder for years to come.

The very first trade of the season was a doozy.

Mudville Nine traded Chien-Ming Wang and Josh Johnson to Bru Cru for John Smoltz. Mudville stated that he was playing for this year. Two young starters for an aging but very good veteran. And boy did the league react. Everyone was saying that Mud had lost his mind. That Bru would now dominate again! That cheese smelled like cotton candy!

Well maybe not the last one.

To analyze this trade we have to look at 2006 numbers.

1. Smoltz. He was awesome. 1301 points. The three pitchers with more points were J.Santana, B. Webb and A. Harang. A top 5 pitcher with great k/bb rate of 211/55. But you would also have seen a very high Innings pitched of 232 ranking him fifth behind the four previous pitchers mentioned and Arroyo. To understand how well a pitcher is actually pitching as compared to not just pitching a lot, we have to look at points/IP (P/IP). John is at 5.60. We will see how that compares to the other SP.
2. Wang. He was above average. 1045 in 218 IP. But we have to remember that he is 13 years younger than Smoltz too. A decent pitcher that is only 26 that can put up better than average numbers is very valuable. He also pitches for the Yankees so run support shouldn't be a problem (or so we thought). Then we look at his P/IP and it comes in at 4.79. Significantly lower. Does youth make the difference worth it? Each GM would have to answer that one personally.
3. Johnson. He put up amazing numbers for a rookie. 859 in 157. He is 17 years younger than Smoltz! His P/IP is an astounding 5.47 just slightly off Smoltz'.

On the surface it looks like Mud sold his soul to get Smoltz. Two quality YOUNG SP for one great OLD SP. Before we look at this years numbers, we have to talk about Johnson. I do not have all the particulars and don't know the whole story but this is what I remember. Girardi put Johnson back in after about a 45 minute rain delay. A very, very risky move especially with a 22 year old. I don't know what Girardi was thinking but it didn't work out. Soon after Josh wasn't the same and I even think he went on the DL, not sure. Girardi overpitched his young starters and what he did to Josh was criminal. My only hope is that Girardi ends up somewhere other than KC (he has even said he would consider KC along with NY, and some other big market team.... scary). Mud surely knew all this and maybe even Bru. Because Smoltz for Wang wouldn't be the worst trade made this year. And the rest is ... no, not history but this year.

2007.

1. Smoltz. Has been good. 515 in 94.2 IP. P/IP of 5.4. He will not equal his total from last year just because it is unlikely that he will pitch as many innings. We are almost halfway and he is nowhere close to halfway. Looking at it again he isn't so far off but he is falling off the pace. Projection of 1081.5
   
2. Wang. 426 in 84.2. Pretty Good. P/IP of 5.05 which is good but he hasn't pitched as much. He was on the DL wasn't he. He could still have an awesome second half but his win totals will be nowhere near last year's. He has fallen off his 2006 pace. Projection of 894.6
   
3. Johnson. Ouch! No points. Just pitched in two games and hasn't gotten out of the 4th inning. The big question is will he ever be the same again? I don't know the nature of his injury (hopefully not shoulder) but you have to give him some time before you can answer those questions. Projection? 0
   

So far Mud is winning this one but the book isn't finished. IF Mud goes on to win this season then you could make the argument that he won (DUH! in the trade I mean). What would you trade off for one winning season? And if he goes on to win, you could say this trade made it happen. While this has been a good trade for Mud it is by no means a 'Cedric'... yet.

Friday Fun Facts

With out further ado, the numbers!

	Team	Total	Bats	/slot	Arms	/start	Week
1.	Mudville Nine	10081	5026	6.98	5055	26.32	745
2.	The Congregat	10027	4893	6.79	5134	26.73	697
3.	EVIL EMPIRE	9970	4994	6.93	4976	25.91	843
4.	Wizzard of Ozzie	9829	4936	6.85	4893	25.48	802
5.	Bru Cru	9777	4878	6.77	4899	25.51	839
6.	Sonic Death Mo	9730	4939	6.85	4791	24.95	934
7.	Little Leaguer	9564	4916	6.82	4647	24.20	727
8.	Banana Slugs	9495	4348	6.03	5147	26.80	745
9.	Florida Pirates	9163	4887	6.78	4276	22.27	792
10.	Mac & Zack At	9020	4660	6.47	4360	22.70	806
11.	Rosies Angels	8731	4305	5.97	4426	23.05	699
12.	Columbus Mad	8557	4410	6.12	4147	21.59	707

Mudville extended his lead even with a weak week. I had the worst week of us all while Sonic ha the best week. Sonic was the only one to move up this week. He passed Little Leaguer, other than that we all stayed in the same position. Although the pack got a little tighter. Evil is almost withing 100 of the lead and the next three don't fall off too fast.

I like the way the bats /slot works this way. The number looks more consistent even though we all went up. The numbers didn't move wildly though. Mud kept the lead but Evil and Ozzie are both gaining.

As far as starts, Banana regained the lead. That is amazing because I know for sure that he has missed some starts. Must be nice to be able to handicap yourself and still come out on top!

Well the top two stumbled a bit giving the pack a chance to catch up. We have a long ways to go yet. I am beginning to wonder if my pitchers can keep up with Muds' offense. Evil is hanging in there with a strong offense as is Ozzie. The first 7 are in this race and more if a team gets real hot.

Father's Day Friday

Happy Fathers Day to all. The only holiday that should be extended to a week.

	Team	Total	Bats	/Slot	*	Arms	/Start	Week
1.	Mudville Nine	9336	4594	7.49	6.89	4742	26.7	835
2.	The Congregationals	9330	4495	7.33	6.74	4834	27.2	812
3.	EVIL EMPIRE	9127	4557	7.43	6.84	4569	25.7	930
4.	Wizzard of Ozzie	9027	4528	7.38	6.79	4498	25.3	839
5.	Bru Cru	8938	4468	7.28	6.70	4473	25.1	749
6.	Little Leaguer	8837	4503	7.34	6.71	4333	24.3	801
7.	Sonic Death Monkees	8796	4491	7.32	6.74	4304	24.2	868
8.	Banana Slugs	8750	4008	6.53	6.01	4742	26.7	684
9.	Florida Pirates	8371	4469	7.29	6.71	3909	22.0	602
10.	Mac & Zack Attack 2	8214	4223	6.88	6.34	3991	22.4	870
11.	Rosies Angels	8032	3910	6.37	5.87	4121	23.2	855
12.	Columbus Mad Cows	7850	3996	6.51	6.00	3854	21.7	715

We all stank this week except for Evil. Every time I use that name I think of Dr. Evil. *puts pinky to mouth. We even had a couple of totals in the 600's. For me personally, my pitching was horrendous this week. Everyone's pitching average was down... must be another 'technical error'

Talking about technical errors, the bats/slot figure is all messed up. Everyone is way down this week. When we all move as a pack up or down it has to be an error on my part. I am ready to revamp how I figure it. I had been calculating days played (-minus opening day when only one game was played) and multiplying that number by 9 (9 slots everyday). I then subtracted 5 slots per week and three for the last week. What I am going to try and do is omit that last part. It's not really necessary and some guys fill more slots than others. So the number will technically be points generated per slots available to use. I am going to throw that number in up there so we can compare it to next weeks number and see if I can generate a more consistent average.

Mudville took the lead. My trading finger is getting antsy. Do I hold out with some young promising players and maybe let the season slip away? Or do I deal prospects for some aging stars. I had several trade offers for Hanley Ramirez that I dismissed without a thought. I was pleased as purple to have a 25 year old star at SS. But it might really be to my advantage to deal a young guy like that especially when my backup is playing so well (betancourt). I would do it tomorrow if Seattle would just move yuniesky up in the batting order. Batting 8th or 9th takes away a lot of AB's. Lincecum is another one that might get me something to put me over the top. But do I sacrifice the future like that? I always thought, if a real general manager wouldn't do it, then I shouldn't do it. But that is just stupid. We don't have to deal with salaries. The young player is valued even MORE in the real league because he has to serve 6 (I think) years before he reaches free agency. We have no monetary restrictions in our league. And I am finding out that prospects (by that I mean young players) usually do not perform as well as tried and true veterans. I just have the hardest time dealing away potential. You would think being a Royals fan, that I would understand potential is meaningless.

For the most part.

Evil Empire is catching up. Bru Cru is falling back. Mudville and I can't shake the other one. Which brings up the question, what if we tie? There is probably a decider in place but I can't remember there being one. And if there is, I think it should be AB's :)

And DEFINITELY not runs !

Lance Berkman's Rage

The big news this week, of course, is the adjustment made to the loss stat. While the adjustment had to be made it makes me sad today. One of the things that I was looking forward to was having a history of the league's activity so at the end of the year we could look back and see exactly where everyone was all the way through the season. I thought a line chart would be cool. I think it would look better with more information. Anyway with the stat adjustment, it skews all the previous data. While it is useful, it is not accurate. But hey! what are you going to do? So bring on the numbers.

		Team	Total	Bats	/Slot	Arms	/Start
1.		The Congregationals	8518	4108	7.52	4410	27.84
2.		Mudville Nine	8501	4206	7.70	4295	27.11
3.		EVIL EMPIRE	8197	4109	7.52	4088	25.80
4.		Bru Cru	8189	4063	7.44	4126	26.04
5.		Wizzard of Ozzie	8188	4108	7.52	4080	25.75
6.		Banana Slugs	8066	3653	6.69	4413	27.85
7.		Little Leaguer	8036	4098	7.50	3937	24.85
8.		Sonic Death Monkees	7928	4082	7.47	3846	24.28
9.		Florida Pirates	7769	4108	7.52	3661	23.11
10.		Mac & Zack Attack 2	7344	3814	6.98	3529	22.27
11.		Rosies Angels	7177	3516	6.43	3661	23.11
12.		Columbus Mad Cows	7135	3636	6.65	3499	22.08

I didn't do the weekly numbers because they wouldn't make sense. It's funny but that bothers me more than getting bumped out of first.

The 'L' adjustment lowered the /start stat. Looks even better (or worse actually). I wanted to average 30 for the year. Kind of a goal. By the numbers at this point, 30 is fantastic.

The bats held pretty steady. It bears remembering that the numbers won't fluctuate as much the further we get into the season. So while Mudville gained .08, at this point it is a significant gain. He is almost 100 points ahead of the rest of us. One thing I noticed was that three of us had the same offensive number this week. 4108.

It is impossible to pinpoint the blame for the changes in position this week. Was it performance or manipulation? Bru, Wizard and Evil are very close together. But they fell a little back of Mud and I. Speaking of which, we are essentially tied. I sure hope Arod goes into a prolonged slump.

The Friday Forensics

	Team	Total		Bats	/Slot	Arms	/Start	Week
1.	The Congrega	8047		3664	7.50	4383	30.95	956
2.	Mudville Nine	7998		3722	7.62	4276	30.19	947
3.	Bru Cru	7832		3657	7.49	4175	29.48	1046
4.	EVIL EMPIR	7787		3679	7.53	4108	29.01	911
5.	Little League	7733		3684	7.54	4048	28.58	953
6.	Wizzard of Oz	7717		3669	7.51	4048	28.58	912
7.	Banana Slugs	7645		3263	6.68	4382	30.94	880
8.	Sonic Death	7444		3628	7.43	3816	26.94	1005
9.	Florida Pirat	7331		3648	7.47	3683	26.00	928
10.	Mac & Zack A	6977		3393	6.95	3584	25.31	869
11.	Columbus Ma	6804		3267	6.69	3537	24.97	773
12.	Rosies Angels	6751		3125	6.40	3626	25.60	996

Two broke the 1000 point barrier this week. Bru Cru and SDM. Bru is making a bid to seperate himself from the second tier and challenge the top. Harang had an awesome week for the Cru. I am just realizing how hard it is to have back to back dominating weeks. Obviously, if your 'aces' start twice in one week, the next week they will only start once. So good weeks are doable but I would really be surprised to see someone break the 1100 barrier twice in a row.

This is the second week in a row that offensive production has jumped up. EVERYONE was up this week. I'm trying to think of a reason other than just better production that would cause it. Something in the numbers. But there is nothing there. We are just getting better. Mudville is really climbing. Posting the best number (7.62) of the year!

I did the pitching stat wrong last week. I divided the total pitching amount by 9. There is no logical reason for that number. The number should be 12. Twelve for the number of pitchers on any given roster. Of course the relievers do not have 'starts' but we can lump their number in there just to give us a relatively close number. We COULD go in and subtract all RP numbers and then divide by 10, but that is way too much work. This number will be good enough. And the adjustment brings the results down to where you would expect them.

Only thing we will notice about the pitching is that we have a new leader. Me. This delights me because I have no chance unless my pitchers give it to me. That sounds really dicey when pitching consistency is the ultimate. I hope I haven't peaked too soon.

Banana had his second brutal week in a row. It is like in Cinderella when the step sister puts on the glass slipper and it fits... only to find out that only here toe is in the shoe. Banana looked like the one team in the pack that could really surge ahead. He is still not out of it but fading.

Mudville and I stayed neck and neck while not distancing ourselves from the pack. Bru made a move and is kind of in between the pack and the leaders. This race is still pretty tight.